Desk notes
What happened, dated and sourced.
Short records of the things that move the research: a quarterly result, a deal, a policy decision, a data release, a market close. Each one cites the document it came from and says in a sentence why a U.S. reader should care. The briefs do the interpreting; the notes keep the record.
34 notes · page 1 of 2
September 2026
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Market / Copper
LME three-month copper closes at US$14,438.50 a tonne, above every June-quarter realized price
The London Metal Exchange's copper page showed a three-month closing price of US$14,438.50 a tonne for the end of September, a level above the 2025 U.S. average of 490 cents a pound and the US$6.05 and US$5.99 a pound that Teck and Kamoa-Kakula realized in the June quarter.
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Policy / Uranium & Nuclear
U.S.–Korea framework contemplates eight large reactors on Westinghouse technology
Cameco, which owns 49% of Westinghouse, says the September 30 framework covers six AP1000 and up to two APR1400 units and that any Korean equity in Westinghouse would not change its own stake.
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Deal / Oil & Gas
LNG Canada sanctions Phase 2, doubling Kitimat to 28 million tonnes a year
The five-company joint venture led by Shell took the final investment decision on September 28; Ottawa calls it a C$33 billion private investment, the second-largest in Canadian history, and Coastal GasLink will expand to feed it from early 2027.
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Policy / Infrastructure
Regulator approves Trans Mountain toll settlement with 90% of the line contracted
The regulator found the negotiated tolls just and reasonable, cancelled the cost-sharing proceeding between the pipeline and its shippers, and approved raising firm contracted capacity on the 890,000 bbl/d system from 80% to 90%.
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Deal / Agriculture & Food
Canpotex commits C$500 million to the Vancouver terminal that ships Saskatchewan potash overseas
The Nutrien–Mosaic export company will replace shiploaders, conveyors and the railcar dumper at Neptune Bulk Terminals by 2028, its largest supply-chain investment; 15 million tonnes a year of Canadian potash move through its system to more than 40 countries.
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Deal / Oil & Gas
Tourmaline sells C$287.5 million of Topaz shares to fund buybacks, lifts dividend 5%
A bought-deal secondary of 10,000,000 Topaz Energy shares at C$28.75 cuts Tourmaline's stake from 12.9% to 6.4%, funds repurchases under the 15.5-million-share issuer bid, and the quarterly dividend goes to C$0.525 from the fourth quarter.
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Data / The Canadian Discount
TSX issuers raised C$5.93 billion in August, up from C$295 million a year earlier
TMX Group's August statistics show 29 TSX financings raising C$5,931,925,580, a 1,911% increase on August 2025, and C$18.9 billion year to date; TSX Venture raised C$594.7 million across 77 financings in the month.
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Data / Gold & Precious Metals
Gold rose 13.3% in August to US$4,563, its third-strongest month in 25 years
The World Gold Council's August commentary puts the month's return among the three best since 2001, driven by ETF, futures and options buying, after a first half in which the price fell from a January record of US$5,405 to US$4,027 at the end of July.
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Policy / Oil & Gas
Bank of Canada holds at 2.25%, citing energy prices and new U.S. tariffs
The policy rate stayed at 2.25% for a second meeting running on September 2; the Bank cited second-quarter GDP growth of 3.3%, inflation near 3% on energy prices and newly announced U.S. tariffs with Canadian counter-measures.
August 2026
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Data / Agriculture & Food
USDA forecasts the 2026 U.S. corn crop at 16.0 billion bushels, down 5.9%
The August Crop Production report cut the corn yield to 180.7 bushels an acre, 5.8 below 2025, while soybeans rose 6.0% to 4.52 billion bushels and all wheat fell 23%; the mix matters for fall fertilizer demand in the Corn Belt.
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Results / Canadian Defense
CAE's first-quarter revenue rises 6.8% as Defense orders lag sales
Revenue of C$1,173.4 million and C$104.0 million of free cash flow for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, against operating income cut to C$86.8 million by C$48.3 million of restructuring; adjusted backlog was C$19,192.3 million, with C$1,657.7 million of it unfunded orders and options.
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Results / Canadian Defense
MDA Space lifts Q2 2026 revenue 34% while free cash flow turns negative
Revenue of C$498.6 million and C$808.9 million of bookings lifted backlog to C$4.0 billion, up C$310 million from March but down C$565 million from a year earlier; operating cash flow was an outflow of C$93.4 million and guidance was narrowed upward.
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Deal / Industrial Technology
Celestica sells 9,677,419 shares at US$310 and the underwriters take 1,451,612 more
A US$3.0 billion treasury offering priced on August 5 and closed on or about August 7 with the over-allotment exercised in full; net proceeds of about US$3.39 billion are for working capital and capital spending.
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Results / Gold & Precious Metals
Wheaton's Q2 revenue sets a record as cash falls to US$100 million after Antamina
Second-quarter cash operating margin of US$3,875 per gold equivalent ounce came on a realized gold price of US$4,452; the US$4.3 billion BHP stream left the company with US$1,969.3 million of bank debt against US$100.2 million of cash.
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Policy / Forestry & Timber
Commerce puts a Quebec sawmill back under the lumber duty order at 1.05%
After a Court of International Trade judgment on July 21, D&G/Portbec's 2015 subsidy rate was recalculated from a de minimis 0.21% to 1.05%, so cash deposits resume on its U.S. shipments; the seventh review that sets everyone else's rate is still pending.
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Results / Oil & Gas
Canadian Natural raises 2026 guidance again on record synthetic crude output
Net earnings of C$4,503 million and adjusted funds flow of C$6,866 million on WTI of US$92.85 let the company cut net debt to C$14,526 million and return about C$4.0 billion; four growth projects stay on hold until the trilateral MOU becomes binding agreements.
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Results / Agriculture & Food
Nutrien lifts potash guidance as nitrogen earnings fall by more than half
Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of US$2,430 million was close to a year earlier as potash and phosphate rose, nitrogen fell to US$263 million from US$566 million and retail held at US$1,131 million; the North American potash price was US$295 a tonne.
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Filing / Uranium & Nuclear
NexGen filing dates Rook I construction start to June 8, cash C$756 million
A C$74.5 million quarterly profit is a fair-value swing on convertible debentures; the operative facts are the June 8 construction start, the unchanged ~C$2.2 billion capital estimate from August 2024, and 670.5 million shares outstanding.
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Policy / Canadian Defense
Canada awards a C$2.3 billion Arctic satellite communications contract; MDA Space builds the satellites
The Defence Investment Agency gave Telesat an initial contract of about C$2.3 billion for military Ka-band capacity on Lightspeed, with 69 more satellites to be built by MDA in Montréal; MDA's own release values its follow-on Telesat order at C$474 million.
July 2026
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Results / Infrastructure
Enbridge holds 2026 guidance as leverage reaches 5.1 times EBITDA
Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA of C$4,776 million rose from C$4,644 million, DCF was C$2,948 million and the secured backlog reached about C$41 billion; the quarter also brought a US$1.0 billion Line 5 relocation in Wisconsin and a 2.6 Bcf/d Gulf Coast gas line on take-or-pay contracts.
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Results / Uranium & Nuclear
Cameco's Q2 realized price rises 18% while production falls 15%
Second-quarter revenue of C$814 million and adjusted EBITDA of C$391 million came in below a year earlier on lower volumes; full-year production guidance of 19.5–21.5 million pounds was held, and Westinghouse filed a confidential draft S-1 the same day.
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Deal / Copper
Anglo American says China is the last approval outstanding for the Teck merger
With its interim results, Anglo American said it still expects to complete the Teck merger within the original September 2026 to March 2027 window, and that Chinese approval is the final regulatory milestone.
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Data / Oil & Gas
U.S. crude imports from Canada fell 4% to 3.9 million b/d in 2025
The value of U.S.-Canada energy trade dropped to an estimated US$137 billion in 2025 on lower oil prices, with crude still 69% of the total; volumes from Canada fell 4%.
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Data / Uranium & Nuclear
Canada supplied 32% of U.S. reactor uranium in 2025, EIA reports
The Uranium Marketing Annual Report released July 29, 2026 puts 2025 deliveries at 46.9 million pounds at a weighted average of US$58.46 a pound, with long-term contracts priced far below spot.
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Results / Gold & Precious Metals
Agnico Eagle posts record Q2 free cash flow, guides 2026 to the low end
Second-quarter free cash flow of US$1,335 million on a realized gold price of US$4,483 an ounce came with total cash costs up to US$1,054 from US$925 a year earlier, and a July 1 rock mass movement at the Barnat pit is expected to cost 60,000 to 80,000 ounces in the second half.
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Results / Forestry & Timber
West Fraser returns to positive EBITDA with US$1,077 million on deposit in Washington
Adjusted EBITDA of US$59 million followed a negative US$66 million first quarter; the net loss narrowed to US$61 million, the Texas sawmill doubled output, and the company says the new 50% Section 338 tariffs do not touch its lumber or OSB.
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Results / Copper
Ivanhoe tightens Kamoa-Kakula guidance and moves Kakula stoping to the second half of 2027
Second-quarter copper production of 64,328 tonnes at a cash cost of US$2.84 a pound came with a narrower 2026 range and a later restart of production mining at Kakula than the March study had set.
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Results / Oil & Gas
Tourmaline realizes C$3.12 a mcf against a C$1.66 AECO in Q2 and defers growth
Second-quarter cash flow of C$786.1 million and free cash flow of C$192.1 million came on production of 594,198 boe/d, held back by storage injections and deferred activity at low Alberta prices; the 2026 budget stays at C$2.55 billion and Phase 2 of the Montney build-out waits a year.
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Results / Industrial Technology
Celestica lifts its 2026 revenue outlook to US$20.5 billion after a 62% quarter
Second-quarter revenue of US$4,698.6 million and adjusted EPS of US$2.54 both beat the top of April's guidance; three customers supplied 32%, 17% and 14% of revenue, and the company says 2027 growth will accelerate.
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Policy / Special Situations
CSA proposes to make the C$25 million listed-issuer financing limit permanent
Canadian regulators propose to write a 2025 blanket order into NI 45-106, keeping the prospectus-free financing limit at C$25 million, or C$50 million for larger issuers, after C$3.7 billion was raised under it in a year; comments close October 21, 2026.